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Logistics Intelligence Brief
Monday, January 23, 2023

Trucking

Trucking demand falls faster than inventories in December

Freight Waves Zach Strickland January 21, 2023

The Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) inventory level component increased from 55 to 57 from November to December, indicating inventory growth accelerated for the first time since the summer as trucking demand as measured by the Outbound Tender Volume Index fell. This divergent signal is an early sign that demand for goods is eroding faster than companies are expecting.
Trucking companies are hopeful that inventories will be rightsized in the first half of the year, but this chart shows that is not a given. Companies have struggled with demand forecasts coupled with supply chain congestion since 2020. Transportation networks are now mostly unclogged and shippers are receiving their orders on a more timely basis. The problem may be that now the demand for their goods is eroding faster than they expected as they try to reduce their inventory levels.

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Industry

East Coast container imports still far above pre-pandemic levels

Freight Waves Greg Miller January 20, 2023

East Coast ports continue to rack up wins versus West Coast rivals. Port announcements in recent days highlight just how much ground the East Coast has gained during the pandemic era.
The latest stats also reveal that the sequential month-on-month volume slide from the pandemic peak may be slowing, even at some of the hardest hit ports on the West Coast.
Month-on-month numbers improving
The Port of Los Angeles reported Thursday that it handled 352,046 twenty-foot equivalent units of loaded imports in December. That’s down 9% year on year and down 6% from December 2019, pre-COVID. But on a positive note, it’s up 15% from November to the highest monthly total since August.
Related: Logistics Management POLA and POLB see solid December and 2022 volumes despite annual declines

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What’s In Store for the 2023 Truck Market?

Transport Topics Roger Gilroy January 20, 2023

Kenny Vieth, president of ACT Research, also cited strong demand for equipment, “and with inflation metrics moderating, we are now more convinced that first-half build rates will be sustained deeper into the second half of 2023.”
ACT’s forecast, as of Jan. 10, called for North American Class 8 production to come in at 304,500 units in 2023, down 3.8% compared with last year. The research firm put the final 2022 Class 8 build volume at 316,400 vehicles, up 19.6% from 2021.

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LM reader survey points to a post-pandemic supply chain and logistics reset

Logistics Management Jeff Berman January 23, 2023

John Larkin, Strategic Advisor, Transportation and Logistics, for Clarendon Capital, said that when looking at the longer-term, in regards to a supply chain reset, more nearshoring and re-shoring activity, to the U.S., is likely in the cards, as the automation of manufacturing really begins to take off and the cost of that automation comes down.

“Labor is still in short supply, and when you have manufacturing taking place in an automated fashion in the U.S., you not only have to move all the finished goods but also the raw materials, components, and sub-assemblies. That really increases the amount of transportation required, from a freight point of view, which is very encouraging for the long-term, especially as we get through this period of a [supply chain] reset. I am very bullish on the long-term and think that the supply chain is going to be much more North American-oriented, with a lot more volume per-dollar of retail sales than we have now because of insourcing, nearshoring, and automated manufacturing that seems to be picking up steam here in the U.S.”

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Government/Safety/Sustainability

Lack of data leaves shippers reliant on 3PLs to reduce Scope 3 emissions

The Journal Of Commerce Eric Johnson January 20, 2023

Subscription-Based

Shippers looking to measure and mitigate emissions are still relying primarily on third-party logistics providers (3PLs) to arm them with carbon calculation tools to inform procurement and routing decisions despite a proliferation of off-the-shelf indexes available to cargo owners.
Pressure on shippers to take a more active role in bringing down so-called Scope 3 emissions covering the activities of a company’s third-party vendors — including transportation — has increased in recent years, but cargo owners have little control over the vessels and vehicles carrying their freight. What’s more, attempts to measure those indirect emissions have been plagued by a lack of uniformity in how the data is collected and calculated.

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A New Era for Heavy-Duty Trucks

Transport Topics Steve Brawner January 20, 2023

n a statement following EPA’s announcement, American Trucking Associations President Chris Spear said fleets’ purchasing decisions ultimately will determine whether the rule succeeds. He noted that the industry already has reduced NOx emissions by 98% since 1988.
EPA said the NOx rule will reduce heavy-duty emissions by almost 50% from today’s levels by 2045, when the agency projects that most of the regulated fleet will have turned over.
“This is just the first action under EPA’s Clean Trucks Plan to pave the way toward a zero-emission future,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement.
Still to come as part of the Clean Trucks Plan are proposed “Phase 3” greenhouse gas standards for heavy-duty vehicles that will also begin with model year 2027 and then significantly increase as soon as model year 2030. EPA intends to release that rule in the coming months. The agency also plans to raise multi-pollutant standards for light- and medium-duty vehicles.

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Workforce

Proud father shows his respect and love for his daughter serving overseas

The Indianapolis Star Caroline Beck January 23, 2023

You can see the creases on the blue star flag that hangs above Dewain Divelbliss’s home in the Pheasant Run neighborhood on the southside.
That’s because Divelbliss, 58, doesn’t go too long without replacing the flag once it starts getting worn down, out of respect for his daughter who is currently deployed in Kosovo.
Divelbliss would prefer not to use his daughter’s name due to the confidential nature of her work in the military.
Divelbliss is an operations manager for Yellow Freight Corporation and likes to describe himself and his family as just “normal folks,” who have worked and lived on the south side of Indianapolis his whole life.

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